Re:Tässä seuraamme Lakers "dynastian" romahtamista
LA may have trouble dividing shots
By Terry Brown
NBA Insider
Wednesday, August 13
Let's say that Los Angeles Lakers center Shaquille O'Neal really has shed the 15 pounds that he and his trainer have been bragging about over the weekend. And that he really has gone from a body fat count of 20 percent last season to 15 percent now and dropping.
And for the sake of argument, let's pretend that he is the one player in professional team sports that is worth $121 million over three seasons that, come October, he is eligible to receive from the Lakers in a contract extension.
That still doesn't mean that he's going to get the ball 40 times a game like he's expecting.
"If I don't get the ball, though, it won't make any difference at all," Shaq said in the LA Times. "A lot of people talk about me as if I had a weight problem. The only problem I had was waiting for the ball. So, run it through the Diesel. I'm mad and I'm ready to go."
Derek Fisher
Point Guard
Los Angeles Lakers
Profile
2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
82 10.5 2.9 3.6 .437 .800
But, we're assuming, so are Kobe Bryant, Karl Malone and Gary Payton, not to mention Derek Fisher, Rick Fox, Devean George and Horace Grant.
So let's continue this little game and pretend that they're the only eight people on the team and see how the offensive numbers work out.
Last year, the Lakers averaged 83.6 shots per game. The year before, they averaged 83.4. In 2001, they averaged 81.5 and in 2000, they averaged 83.3. In the last four years of running Tex Winters' triangle, three of them resulting in NBA Titles, the team has averaged 82.9 shots per game.
Not counting his formidable free throw count, nor his proficient assist total, O'Neal, over those same four seasons, has averaged 19.2 shots per game, which includes his 2000 MVP season in which he shot the ball 21 times a contest and last year's injury-hampered season in which he shot the ball only 18 times per game.
Over his career, Shaq has averaged 18.9 shots per game.
But Malone's career, he's averaged 17.9 shots per game. Payton shot the ball 18.3 times per game for the Sonics and Bucks last year. Bryant took a whopping 23.4 shots per game on his way to averaging 30 points per game last year.
If you take the career numbers of those four future Hall of Famers, they will average 69.3 shots per game next season. If you take their numbers from last season, they will average 75.6 shots per game.
Doing the math reveals that their career numbers leave only 13.6 shots for the rest of the team. Their numbers from last season leave only 7.3 shots per game.
Obviously, something's got to give.
Even if we assume that the Lakers, because of their improved roster, will attempt more shots next season and make more of them, can we really expect George, Fox and Fisher to go from a combined 22.6 shots per game to 7.3?
Sure, Payton isn't going to reach his career average of 15.6 shots per game, but Fisher averaged 9.4 last year.
Malone's numbers have been declining as he's gotten closer and actually reached the 40-year-mark, but he still averaged 15.9 shots per game last year, while the combination of Robert Horry and Samaki Walker averaged 9.9.
Kobe Bryant
Shooting Guard
Los Angeles Lakers
Profile
2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
82 30.0 6.9 5.9 .451 .843
And we'll even assume that Bryant will slow down a bit and not continue his seven-year streak of increasing his shot total that has seen him go from 422 shots as a rookie to 1,925 last year (259 more shots than Shaq has ever taken in a season).
But that means we also have to assume that Shaq isn't going to reach his 18 shots per game even if his big toe is feeling fine, his knees are stable and his back is strong.
"I'll tell you what. If I wasn't in shape last year, I must be the greatest," O'Neal said in the LA Daily News. "To have to put up with five, 10 people every night and still get 27 (points) and 10 (rebounds) and play on a messed-up foot and play on a messed-up knee, and never complain. In the words of Muhammad Ali, 'I must be the greatest.' "
Last year, the Dallas Mavericks averaged a league-high 103 points per game by shooting the ball 85.1 times per game. On the other hand, in 1967, the Los Angeles Lakers took 8,466 shots for an average of 104.5 shots per game. The following year, they averaged 121.2 points per game for a franchise record. In 1983, they averaged a franchise-high of 48.3 made baskets a game.
But those teams didn't have to face the two-time defending MVP Tim Duncan, or the superstar-laden Mavericks, or revamped Timberwolves, not to mention the Kings who may be the deepest team of them all.
"It's not going to matter," Shaq continued in the LA Daily News. "You know that. The whole world knows it's not going to matter. You know why? Because I'm back now. Last year, I was a little banged up. But no team is a powerhouse, and no team scares me. And I'm upset and I'm (ticked) off. A lot of people doubting me. The old Shaq will be back, talking (smack), starting fights, getting my legs up when I dunk. I'm back now. I'm mad now."
And that was before he realized he wasn't going to be shooting as many times as he did last year.
Working out the rage
Howard Beck / Los Angeles Daily News
Shaq's Burden Is Lighter
Tim Brown / Los Angeles Times